It's going to be a tricky winter. Some folks are saying it's going to be a bad one for snow, while others are saying we'll probably have more of the same conditions we've been having. Either way, it will be something to deal with.
I contracted my cottoncake for the cows and calves yesterday. Let's just say that it's going to be VERY expensive. But you'd expect that. With the drought we expect less corn, beans, wheat, etc than were initially expected, driving the prices up.....Way up. Much of the yields will not be poor since a majority of farmers have some kind of irrigation here in the middle of the US. Dryland crops will be much less than projected early this spring. Because no one really projected that we were heading into a drought season. It's one of the "sh*t runs down hill" type things that has an effect on everyone.
Hay prices are absolutely through the roof. I've talked to several ranchers who have "wet meadows" they put up hay on. They are able to mow places they haven't been able to mow in many years because it is so dry. The hay isn't as good as it has been, but it's going to beat a snowbank.....if we get any. We hear folks are bringing in alfalfa hay from Canada for $400/ton. Let me put that in perspective just a bit for you. In a normal year, we feed roughly 10 ton A DAY. We are a pretty small operation compared to some. Fortunately for us, we have had a surplus the last few years and have added to our hay this year from our pivot of alfalfa. There's still a chance we might be able to get a fourth cutting which won't be a lot of hay, but it will be hay we didn't have before. Depending upon the winter conditions, we should have enough to get us through the winter.
It's definitely a learning time for many of us. We have had things so good the last few years that for the most part, it's been a "no-brainer" getting through each season. For me anyway, it's been a year of a lot more "putting the pencil to the paper" , so to speak. One good thing about us ranchers.......we spend a lot of time alone where we are able to do a lot of thinking.
But to me, the thing that is perhaps going to trip some of my fellow ranchers up (and I could be wrong about this....it's pretty much just speculation here) is what's going to happen next year. While our cows still look good now, I believe that is the benefit of the last few years of good grass and nice winters. I think a cow's system is actually a year behind what her body looks like. So it could be difficult to care for the cows this winter. I think, more than ever, nutrition will be key this year. And perhaps we'd be ahead to feed better than usual, to try getting our cows through this difficult time and have them ready for calving and breeding season NEXT YEAR.
Time will tell what the cattle industry holds for the next few years. I'm sorry to say this drought will probably put some producers out of business, like it did for cattle producers in the southern states. Others will squeak by and still others will somehow make a lot of money from others' misfortune. Again, I will be trusting my "Heavenly Cow Boss" to help make the right decisions and to bring us through a difficult time. Whatever happens, I know He will be there to take care of us and bring us through better on the other side.
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